Combining several models to improve the predictions of soil organic carbon

Article: Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long‐term bare‐fallow soils

Authors: Farina, Roberta et al.

Journal: Global Change Biology

Year: 2020

Simulation models are used for creating predictions for soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon cycle. In this study, SOC results simulated from different models were assessed by comparing the simulations to field data conducted across Europe. The decay of carbon in these long-term bare-fallow plots has been monitored for decades after the last application of plant material. This provides the opportunity to study decomposition without continuous input of organic material. According to this study, an ensemble of different models can improve the reliability of the long-time predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty of the model estimates.